As long as you’re not an exporter, or somebody competing with imports, you probably feel things are going pretty well at the moment. Retail sales growing steadily, the property market booming, unemployment the lowest in years, inflation low – that can’t be too bad?
Certainly, compared with many other countries things in New Zealand seem to be pretty good right now, the result of a very low exchange rate in 2000 and 2001, strong net immigration caused by a weak world economy and security concerns abroad, and the ongoing benefits of the reforms of the late eighties and early nineties.
But look a bit more closely. Most observers expect the economy to slow down gradually over the next year or so, and the Treasury is projecting a gradual slow-down over the next decade, with growth averaging only about 2.5% annually over that period. The Government has abandoned its earlier goal of lifting New Zealand’s living standards back to the top half of the OECD over the next 10 years – and that is realistic: on present trends, there is no chance at all of achieving that goal.
And if the gap between our living standards and those in other developed countries such as Australia continues to grow, as it has done for much of the last four decades, we will gradually see the exodus of bright, energetic New Zealanders turn into a flood. The kind of society which many of us have grown up in, and others were seeking when they landed on these shores, simply won’t survive.
The Government is making matters worse by erecting barriers to growth at almost every turn: their failure to fix the problems with the Resource Management Act, the additional risks for employers created by the Health and Safety in Employment Amendment, the higher tax rates on those most likely to invest, the failure to fix the problems of traffic congestion, and all the rest.
In other areas too the Government is creating serious problems. Traditionally, New Zealanders have been a friendly and tolerant people, but with recent moves to give special preferences to Maori New Zealanders, there is a growing backlash of racial intolerance which is potentially very dangerous for all of us.
Traditionally, we have had a very close relationship with Australia and the United States. While somebody married to an Asian as I am is the last person to suggest we should neglect the need to improve relations with the countries of this region, we can ill afford to antagonise our traditional friends and allies, as this Government has successfully done in recent years.
There is a growing arrogance about the Government, as illustrated by their determination to push through the legislation to cut the right of appeal to the Privy Council and establish a local Supreme Court – despite strong opposition by most of the business sector, most of the parties in Parliament, and most Maori groups.
The only good thing about this is that most New Zealanders react badly to arrogance and bullying. The Government’s behaviour brings closer the day when they will be defeated at the polls.
Copyright © 2024 Don Brash.