A summary of a speech to Grey Power on 24 June 2016
Anybody born around the middle of the 20th century – as most members of GreyPower were – are amongst the luckiest people ever to have lived on planet Earth. We can travel around New Zealand and around the world with astonishing speed and at lower prices, in real terms, than ever before in history. We have access to the marvels of modern medicine and dentistry. We can cheaply communicate with people everywhere, and watch on television as things happen on the far side of the world. We all enjoy the benefits of refrigeration and of modern sanitation. We carry tiny computers in our pockets which enable us to photograph, communicate and navigate in ways which even our parents would regard as astonishing.
And enjoying these benefits in New Zealand makes us doubly blessed. Our economy is growing; unemployment is low by international standards; all our children – our daughters as well as our sons – have access to largely free education; government is almost entirely devoid of corruption; and the country has an enormous abundance of natural resources, including of water. Even speaking English as our native language confers a huge benefit in today’s world, where the only international language is English.
But five things worry me. First, while economic growth appears quite respectable, that growth is to a large extent just reflecting the increase in our population as a result of increased immigration. Economic growth per person is in fact very slow – indeed, some of the slowest in the developed world.
Second, while the Government’s budget is currently in small surplus, the longer-term outlook is more serious as successive Governments have refused to acknowledge the fiscal implications of the ageing of our population – meaning more and more people will be looking for New Zealand Super, healthcare and aged care, with progressively fewer and fewer people able to foot the bill.
Third, as a country we continue to be quite heavily reliant on borrowing the savings of foreigners – the Government does it to fund infrastructure when foreigners buy our government bonds and the banks do it because New Zealanders are much better borrowers than they are savers.
Fourth, we have ridiculously expensive housing in New Zealand – especially but not only in Auckland. A recent book written by an American advising Americans how to decide whether to buy a home or to rent suggested that, as a rule of thumb, people shouldn’t pay more than 2.5 times their annual income to buy a home. In Auckland, you can’t buy a chicken coop for 2.5 times annual income! This has very serious economic and social consequences.
Finally, we are witnessing a steady drift away from the promise of Governor Hobson when the Treaty of Waitangi was signed in 1840 that we would henceforth be one people, with more and more constitutional preferences being given to those with a Maori ancestor. This will breed increasing resentment on the part of those without a Maori ancestor.
So yes, we’re a lucky country, but we also have some serious challenges ahead.
Copyright © 2024 Don Brash.